As self-driving Robotaxis become increasingly common in cities like Los Angeles, Tesla has made a significant move that could pave the way for its own autonomous vehicle fleet. The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) recently confirmed that Tesla applied for a permit in November, signaling its intent to delve deeper into the robotaxi market.
This permit application, while not directly authorizing autonomous vehicle operations, is a crucial step for Tesla. It would allow the electric vehicle giant to operate transportation services using company-owned vehicles with human drivers. This initial permit is a prerequisite for the more advanced Autonomous Vehicle Passenger Service permit from the CPUC, which would ultimately grant Tesla the green light to deploy robotaxis without human drivers in California.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been vocal about his vision for a Tesla-powered robotaxi service for years. However, the company has faced scrutiny, notably from the U.S. highway safety agency, regarding public statements suggesting their vehicles possess self-driving capabilities that are not yet fully realized.
Despite this permit application, launching a fully operational robotaxi service is still a considerable distance away for Tesla. While companies like Waymo are already deploying driverless vehicles in cities including Los Angeles and San Francisco, industry experts suggest Tesla is still lagging behind in the robotaxi race.
Understanding Tesla’s Permit Application: The TCP
The permit Tesla is seeking is known as a transportation charter-party carrier permit, or TCP. According to the CPUC, this type of permit is commonly used by companies operating charter buses for events or limousines for private hire.
It’s crucial to understand that obtaining a TCP permit alone does not authorize Tesla to operate autonomous vehicle rides, whether with or without a driver present. Instead, it serves as a necessary precursor to applying for the CPUC’s Autonomous Vehicle Passenger Service permit. This subsequent permit is the key to deploying driverless taxis in California.
Currently, only a select few companies hold the coveted permission to operate driverless robotaxis in California: Waymo, WeRide AI, and Zoox. Cruise, another contender, had its permit suspended by General Motors after a serious incident involving a pedestrian injury.
Deciphering Tesla’s Robotaxi Strategy
Bryant Walker Smith, a University of South Carolina law professor specializing in emerging transportation technology, suggests there might not be a direct link between the TCP permit and immediate robotaxi operations. However, he believes Musk is likely signaling a strategic move towards autonomous services.
“One possibility is that it has truly nothing to do with robotaxis, and they really just want to operate a bunch of Tesla party buses,” Smith noted, while acknowledging the unlikelihood of this scenario.
Sam Abuelsamid, an expert in emerging transportation technology at Telemetry Insights, concurs that obtaining a TCP permit could be a strategic step for Tesla to establish infrastructure for a future robotaxi fleet.
“They probably want to do some real-world testing of their dispatch system, looking down the road at when they hope to maybe launch a robotaxi service,” Abuelsamid explained.
Elon Musk himself emphasized the potential financial gains from autonomous driving in a January earnings call. He asserted that autonomous capabilities would significantly increase the value of existing vehicles through software updates, stating, “Very few people understand the value of full self driving and our ability to monetize the fleet.”
The Timeline for Driverless Tesla Robotaxis
The exact timeline for when driverless Tesla robotaxis might become a reality in California remains uncertain. Tesla must not only secure the TCP permit but also apply for and be accepted into the CPUC autonomous vehicle program. Furthermore, the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) also has its own permit requirements for both testing and deploying driverless vehicles.
Regulations in Texas are less stringent, suggesting that autonomous Teslas could potentially appear on roads in Austin sooner. Reports indicate Tesla reached out to Austin officials regarding autonomous vehicle deployment as early as May.
Experts estimate that the regulatory process in California could take up to a year, contingent on Tesla demonstrating the safety of its technology, according to Smith.
While Tesla did not officially comment on the permit application, Musk indicated in the January earnings call that Tesla aims to deploy Cybertrucks, Model 3s, and Model Ys utilizing unsupervised “Full Self-Driving” technology in both Texas and California as early as this year. In October, Tesla showcased Cybercab and Cybervan prototypes, lacking steering wheels and pedals, to select guests on a closed track.
Musk has a history of optimistic timelines, having promised fully autonomous driving capabilities as far back as 2014. Experts like Abuelsamid believe Musk has often overstated the current capabilities of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system.
“I don’t expect robotaxis to happen for Tesla for a long time,” Abuelsamid concluded. “I don’t think their technology is going to be suitable for that until they make some fundamental changes.”
Robotaxi Safety and Technological Hurdles
Safety remains a paramount concern surrounding autonomous driving technology. Tesla’s current supervised Full Self-Driving mode, which requires human driver intervention, has been under investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) due to safety concerns and multiple crashes, including one involving a pedestrian fatality.
Tesla advises drivers to be prepared to take immediate control while using Full Self-Driving mode. In one instance, a Tesla driver using autopilot who crashed into a train admitted fault for the accident.
Concerns about regulatory oversight have also emerged. Reports indicate that the NHTSA’s autonomous car regulation team experienced layoffs as part of broader government efficiency cuts.
A study by ISeeCars.com indicated that Tesla had the highest rate of fatal accidents among car brands between 2017 and 2022, despite its driver-assistance technology and high safety ratings from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Tesla disputed the study’s methodology, calling it “clickbait.”
A key technological difference between Tesla and Waymo lies in their sensor approach. Waymo vehicles utilize cameras, radar, and lidar (laser-based radar) for navigation. Musk has publicly dismissed lidar, but Abuelsamid and other experts argue that Tesla’s heavy reliance on cameras may compromise the safety of its Full Self-Driving system.
Smith also highlighted that Waymo’s driverless technology employs more advanced mapping and a modular learning process, enabling better environmental responsiveness compared to Tesla’s current system.
Abuelsamid summarizes the situation by stating, “Every announcement that Musk makes is aimed at trying to build the narrative around Tesla autonomy. When you actually look at the technology, it just doesn’t hold up.” This suggests that while Tesla is making strides towards robotaxis, significant technological advancements and safety validation are still needed before widespread deployment becomes a reality.
